As if I knew. However, after some 30 years in the business, it is clear to me that on average, we as individuals sit back and wait until things have been proven before we are moved to action.

Thus, we must have confidence. (This is why we sat back during the last few years and jumped into the market only after the B.C. election. We had confidence again.)

Our natural human instinct leans toward doubt. Said Martin Armstrong in a speech in 1997: xhe vast majority of players in a leveraged position tend to win the battle in their original assessment of the situation, but they lose the war because they have bought more aggressively at the top instead of at the bottom.ÿ/p>

Thus inevitably, the lowest risk is always at a time when it appears to be the greatest risk.

So, confidence, belief and risk: Trying to identify and predict the level of confidence that we collectively have after last monthô disaster, that is the question. It is the level of confidence that prevails in the market segment (stocks and real estate) every time we make an investment decision that will determine our success.

So how confident are you?

An open mind to the future is only possible through the guidance of the past. Whatever has happened before, is likely to happen again. It is the nature of the beast.

So letô look at the past and see what we can learn from it:

Two years after the Korean War, the stock market was up 39.3 per cent. After the Cuban missile crisis 57 per cent. After the Kennedy assassination 33 per cent.

Two years after the 1987 crash we were up 54 per cent, the Persian Gulf war 31 per cent. In fact two years after the 18 worst disasters since Pearl Harbour, stock markets were up an average of 37 per cent. I do not have statistics for real estate but I can share this: In 1969 I could not give away brand new three-bedroom houses in Burnaby for $19,900. In 1974, after the Dow dropped 40 per cent, realtors were ßrowling like hungry tigers according to an articl

e in The Sun in 1974 when houses Vrashed to $56,000. In the fall of 1982 I spoke to 600 business people at the Hotel Vancouver venturing a 5ood buying opportunity only to find myself having to defend at length the very high prices ($110,000).

The above indicates how resilient we all can be and how quickly we can shrug off bad news.

Having said this, we have to remember that crises naturally come at different points in the business cycle, and that variable adds to the difficulty of predicting future outcomes based on the past.

Even before the recent tragedy, consumer sentiment had plunged and profit warnings were plentiful. However, there is comfort in the study of the past.

Major point: The average buyer is confident. This week talking to developers, there are some fine samples: Michael Sikich (604-889-8998) of D9vidio Marketing reports that interest in the new 16-storey 51-suite North Shore high-rise xhe Symphony is very high. Ue are having our grand opening Nov. 4, the show suite is not finished yet and we had over 200 couples through this weekend with six deals firm. (Buy a one-bedroom from $142,900, a two-bedroom from $209,900). He also reports that the all-steel and concrete construction Dhaughnessy Square in Port Coquitlam, a great 3-storey marketplace with pub, has sold 22 deals in the last 40 days. (Buy a fourth-floor loft with roof balcony for $142,900).

Daryl Simpson of Bosa Ventures (604-506-3365) reports an even more astounding success. The Xden has now sold 110 units since Sept. 29 (Yes, after Sept. 11!).

Interestingly enough of the developments 13 0itihomes (multi-level apartment homes with ground level/street front entries and roof decks) only one is left.

At the current Canada Savings Bond rate of 1.9 per cent, a well bought real estate investment showing an 8 per cent-plus return is not only a great return but still has a fine capital gain too once we regain confidence.